The Compression Cycle
Swiss data reveals which industries AI is eating first
Source: Dun & Bradstreet / 20 Minuten — Swiss Insolvency Rate Change by Sector, 2025 vs. Prior Year
Switzerland just published the receipts. 2025 bankruptcy rates by sector, compared to the prior year. And if you know how to read it through an acceleration lens, it tells a story most people aren't seeing yet.
This isn't a story about the Swiss economy. It's a preview of yours.
The Direct Hit List
Six sectors with a clear, direct AI link are leading the collapse:
> "The sector is eating itself. IT services built careers on what AI coding tools now do in seconds."
The Accelerants — Disrupted Indirectly, But Just as Fast
These sectors aren't being hit by AI itself — they're being restructured by AI-driven forces upstream:
The Survivors — For Now
Healthcare (33%), Construction (41%), Trades (35%), Forestry (24%) — these sectors are being driven by structural and cyclical forces, not AI disruption. At least for now.
The keyword is physical. A plumber still has to be in the room. A surgeon's hands still have to be present. AI can assist, optimize, and advise — but the economic pressure on these sectors comes from rates, labour markets, and supply chains, not algorithms replacing the core function. That protection window is probably 3-5 years. Possibly less.
What This Really Means
My count: roughly 12 of the 22 sectors (over half) have a meaningful AI or acceleration connection. The top 6 most affected sectors are almost all knowledge-work or creative categories.
But here's what matters more than the percentage: the speed.
AI isn't causing these bankruptcies directly. It's collapsing the adaptation window. Businesses that had 3-5 years of runway to pivot, retrain, and reposition now have 6-12 months. The ones showing up in this chart are the ones that didn't move fast enough — or couldn't.
This is the Compression Cycle. Not AI as a cause. AI as an accelerant that makes every underlying structural pressure move faster than organisations were built to handle.
> "If your sector is in the top half of this chart, you don't have 3 years to adapt. You have 12 months. The compression is already happening."
Domino Index Connection
Micro Domino #12 — The Compression Cycle
This data is now tracked in the Domino Index as Micro Domino #12. Swiss 2025 insolvency rates serve as real-world evidence that the adaptation window is collapsing across knowledge work and creative sectors globally.